Top (L) Moshe Terdiman, (R) Ebenezer Obadare. Bottom: Joshua Meservey. Ending on a note of optimism, Obadare put forth that “an opportunity presents itself here for the United States to have a sort of fundamental rethink of its Africa strategy. The more democratic, stable, transparent the countries in the region become the greater the likelihood they will be prosperous and the greater the chances we’ll be talking about a region in 20 years from now whose political, sociological and economic profile is significantly different from what we’ve come to expect and what has been the case for the last two or three decades.”
Geostrategic Importance of Horn of Africa Focus of Hudson Institute Discussion
By Elaine Pasquini
Washington: Situated on strategic shipping lanes that connect the East and West, for centuries the Horn of Africa has been a vital trade route and continues today to attract the interest of global powers.
The Hudson Institute in collaboration with the Israel-Africa Relations Institute held a webinar on April 1, 2025, to discuss the great power competition in the region.
Moshe Terdiman, research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, noted Russia’s intense interest in having access to this trade route which has prompted the country to build bases in the region. In February, it contracted to establish a naval base in Sudan, which provides it control of an area stretching from Sudan on the Red Sea to Senegal on the Atlantic Ocean, a distance of more than 6,000 kilometers. Russia also has a new airbase in southeastern Libya and is interested in acquiring bases in Chad.
Last year, following its exit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade preference agreement, Ethiopia joined BRICS, an organization consisting of Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, South Africa, India, Egypt and the UAE. Ethiopia believes a BRICS membership will help them revive their economy with eastern support, whether it comes from Iran, China or Russia, Terdiman said.
In addition, Russia recently signed an agreement to explore the possibility of establishing a Center for Nuclear Science and Technology in Ethiopia.
Iran also has a major presence in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan. “Iran is everywhere in the region, specifically for the important trade route and to find new markets for their economy which is strangled by US sanctions,” Terdiman said. “All of this makes these countries very attractive. In Sudan there are a lot of goldmines, and with Kenya it’s all about the economy.” Iran also helps bridge the gap in Kenya between Afghan Shi’a refugees and other Africans.
The Horn of Africa is most important to Iran, he argued, because this is the “gateway to the rest of Africa for them.”
China is also a big player in the Horn of Africa. In addition to its military base in Djibouti, the country maintains investments in Ethiopia and supported Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during the civil war.
In Somalia, China has a monopoly on the tuna industry, according to Terdiman, which is every important for Chinese food security.
Chinese ships continue to travel through the Red Sea despite attacks by the Houthis from Yemen on other international carriers, which have increased during Israel’s continued assault on Gaza.
Joshua Meservey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, suggested that Djibouti is probably one of the African countries most influenced by China.
“China has a hardened real military base there,” Meservey said. “It’s a serious military piece of infrastructure. Djibouti port is so important because it is really the only serious port that serves the entire Horn of Africa region.”
Ethiopia, as the second most populous country in Africa with massive markets, is very reliant on Djibouti, he added. Chinese companies operate a number of the terminals in Djibouti port, some of which they built, “so there is a strong influence there.”
In addition, he noted that China has participated in counterpiracy patrols in the region for several few years. “These counterpiracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area are really important to that effort because it’s training and experience for them,” he said. “And then they can go from there and do port calls which have both a military purpose and a readiness purpose but also a diplomatic purpose, strengthening ties in African countries. We see a lot of Iranian, Chinese and Russian activity in Ethiopia. So, it seems like Ethiopia is going East.”
Meservey also pointed out the Red Sea’s dense concentration of fiberoptic cables that carry internet communication globally. “We’ve seen the disruptions that can happen when those cables are severed in regional conflicts.”
Ebenezer Obadare, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, emphasized that access to the Red Sea is not only important to countries in the region, but also to China, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the Gulf countries. “All of them have economic and geopolitical interest in the Horn of Africa,” he said.
But it’s a region of intense political contestation, instability and civil war, particularly in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. And “it’s become the playground for al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda and other jihadi extremist groups,” he lamented.
To ensure safe access to these important shipping lanes it is imperative to reach enduring solutions, he said, noting the political stability of the Horn of Africa is in the best interest of the United States for trade, security and geopolitical competition.
The long-term focus of the US should be on strengthening and stabilizing countries affected by terrorism, Obadare said. Hard power is extremely important but there is a need for the frank assessment of the genuine needs of these countries, and to invest resources, materially and morally, in these countries with a view to securing them and making sure that young people don’t fall into the insurgency, he added.
Ending on a note of optimism, Obadare put forth that “an opportunity presents itself here for the United States to have a sort of fundamental rethink of its Africa strategy. The more democratic, stable, transparent the countries in the region become the greater the likelihood they will be prosperous and the greater the chances we’ll be talking about a region in 20 years from now whose political, sociological and economic profile is significantly different from what we’ve come to expect and what has been the case for the last two or three decades.”
(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)
