Photo South China Morning Post
Lessons from the Pakistan-India War 2025
By Dr Khalid Siddiqui
Ohio
The four-day Indo-Pakistan war from May 7 to May 10 was, apparently, an attempt by Prime Minister Modi to avenge the defeat of 2019. Here is my take on it based on the limited information available on the news media as of now:
1. While the skirmish of 2019 didn’t leave the desired and lasting effects in the minds of Western media and public, the current conflict became internationalized rather quickly for two reasons - the downing of three Rafale fighter jets the very first night, and the direct involvement of Trump in securing a ceasefire.
2. The assumption of the Indian military’s parity, if not superiority, in the conventional war against Pakistan has been proven wrong. The Indian Air Force was no match to the superior Pakistani Air Force operating with the help of Chinese technology.
3. The Chinese government has openly reaffirmed its commitment to ensure the security and sovereignty of Pakistan.
4. President Trump did offer mediation on the Kashmir issue which was rejected by India. Still, the Kashmir issue has been internationalized as the core issue of the dispute between India and Pakistan, something that India has been opposing tooth and nail.
5. India’s role as a bulwark against China in the Quad has become questionable.
6. The Chinese fighter planes, missiles, and cyberwar capabilities were proven to be superior to those of the West. It resulted in a drop in the share prices of Dassault (pronounced “Daso”) Aviation, the maker of the Rafale. While Indonesia and other potential buyers of the Rafale fighters are having second thoughts, the orders for the Chinese planes and missiles are expected to soar.
7. Finding almost no diplomatic support (except for Israel) abroad, all the efforts of Modi, therefore, are directed towards elevating the morale of the domestic audience by feeding them a false and fabricated narrative. No official figures of the losses have been made public in the name of national security during the wartime – it is on pause only.
Lessons
1. While the war is on pause, Narendra Modi would try to get F35 (fifth generation) planes from the USA to be used in renewed conflicts. The purchase of the planes and the training of the pilots would take several years. He must have learned from the recent unfavorable results about the risks of not entering into a war without full preparations. So, it would be foolish for him to restart a war too soon.
2. The Pakistani Army changed its strategy from Defensive to Offensive Defense. Defensive means reacting to the invasion and then going back into the shell. This policy has a high chance of getting overrun by the enemy with higher numerical strength. Offensive defensive means a preemptive strike on the bases where offense is expected to come from before it is launched. This unexpected and overwhelming response by Pakistan unnerved the Indians.
3. After 2019, as expected, Pakistan didn’t make any attempts to highlight the Kashmir issue internationally. It has another chance to do so now. But, realistically, no change is expected on the Kashmir situation soon. And Modi would not be able to abrogate the Indus Waters Treaty in a practical sense. So to me, both of these are dead issues at this time.
4. The issue that is more real and serious is terrorism. Pakistan has been projected by India, very successfully, as a terrorist state. It came out of the grey list of FATF only recently with great difficulty. The Indian narrative is again based on terrorism allegedly perpetrated/sponsored by Pakistan on the Indian/Occupied Kashmiri soil including the terrorist attack at Pahalgam on April 22, 2025. All its military actions were justified by Modi as attacks on terrorists’ hideouts within Pakistan. And that too only after Pakistan itself refused to act against the terrorists. Pakistan claims that it has sufficient evidence of terrorist activities by India/Modi in the form of arrested spies and terrorists; Indian armament used; and wiretaps. So, why doesn’t it present all this evidence to foreign media and the Western dignitaries?
5. So, seminars, talk shows, townhouse meetings etc. should be held to expose Modi/India in countries where this evidence matters the most. But unfortunately, neither Shahbaz Sharif nor his team have competent people who could facilitate this. The political parties, these days, are busy with intra- and inter-party bickering over petty issues. If this precious moment is allowed to slip away Pakistan, most probably, will never get another chance.
6. Strong military alone, though important, is not enough. Pakistan needs a credible government and sound economic policies to sustain a prolonged war, if it came to that. The USSR was a strong (probably the strongest) military power but had a weak government and poor economic policy. The army alone couldn’t hold it together, and it imploded on December 26, 1991. A lesson for Pakistan.
