April 26 , 2024
It was becoming clear to all that Ukraine needed more and better military support if it was to have a chance to win this war. Conversely, if US aid did not resume, it was conceivable that the Russians could eventually bludgeon the Ukrainians into defeat – Photo Reuters
Ukraine Gets Aid
After 15 months of stonewalling, the Republicans in the House relented and allowed a vote to resume military aid to Ukraine. This 60 billion dollar package will be quickly approved by the Senate and the aid flow will resume imminently. While the Europeans have provided more aid than the US in financial terms, it is the US that has provided the bulk of military aid, which is what Ukraine needs to win on the battlefield.
After Putin’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022, American military aid and intelligence support were critical in helping the badly outmanned and outgunned Ukrainians to hold off the initial Russian assault. While Russia grabbed large parts of Ukraine in the north, east, and south, they were unable to seize the capital Kyev, and the Ukrainian government remained in power. With the help of American and European support, the Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of the northern regions by the summer of 2022, and in the fall took back the Russian gains in the east near Kharkiv. This still left Russia in control of the south along the Black Sea coast, and in addition, Russia remained in possession of Crimea and the Donbas region it had earlier seized in 2014 when it first attacked Ukraine.
Over the winter of 2022-2023 the Ukrainians received large shipments of tanks and armored personnel carriers, and they had a number of units trained in NATO-style “combined arms warfare”. The hope was that these newly equipped units would be able to punch through Russian lines in the south in the summer of 2023 and win the war. But when the Ukrainians attacked, they were bogged down by extensive fortifications the Russians had built, and drones and Russian airpower limited the Ukrainian ability to conduct massed armor attacks. Instead, the frontlines have been stalemated for the last year.
It was becoming clear to all that Ukraine needed more and better military support if it was to have a chance to win this war. Conversely, if US aid did not resume, it was conceivable that the Russians could eventually bludgeon the Ukrainians into defeat.
What was blocking aid to Ukraine was Donald Trump. Even though he is out of office, he remains effectively the most powerful Republican politician, and he directed the Trump supporters in the House of Representatives to not allow a vote on the Ukrainian aid package that had been passed by the Senate. Mike Johnson, the ultra-conservative Republican who is the Speaker of the House, has the power to decide if and when a bill can get a vote. Even though the vast majority of the House wanted to help save Ukraine, Johnson was listening to Trump for the last several months.
But last week that all changed. Johnson finally allowed a vote, and every Democrat plus about half the Republicans voted for the aid. Why did Johnson switch? It’s hard to say for certain but perhaps it was classified intelligence briefings he was given that showed how precarious the situation was becoming for Ukraine. They were literally running out of ammunition for their artillery, which is the most useful weapon on the battlefield. Morale was starting to decline as without US aid there was no obvious path forward for Ukraine to win.
What this aid vote means is that Ukraine is about to receive several important weapons and ammunition needed to swing this war back in their direction. They no longer need to worry about defeat. Already, Ukraine has destroyed most of the professional Russian army that existed when this war started, and has also destroyed countless Russian tanks and other vehicles. It has damaged or destroyed much of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and it has eroded Russian airpower. Ukraine is about to receive advanced American F-16 fighter planes that its pilots have been training on for several months. These jets will dramatically improve Ukraine’s ability to dominate the airspace over the battlefield. In addition, it appears the Biden team is now willing to send Ukraine the long-range version of its ATACMS rocket artillery system, which will give Ukraine the ability to strike targets deep behind Russian lines. Ukraine will also get enough ammunition to fully make use of its frontline artillery.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will win this war in 2024. It will probably take another year to grind down the Russian army. Russia is not getting any weapons from abroad, it is relying on stocks of old weapons from the Soviet days to fight this war. Those stocks are not endless, and most of the best tanks, vehicles, and artillery have been lost. Over the next year, the Russian military may well approach a point of exhaustion, when it can no longer maintain a cohesive frontline.
The other unknown is the morale of Russian troops. They have no cause they are fighting for. They are just conscripts being thrown into a meatgrinder of Putin’s vanities. At what point does their morale collapse and they stop offering resistance to Ukraine’s forces, which are fighting to repel an invading army? 2025 may be the year Putin’s army collapses. It may also be the year Putin’s regime falters in the face of imperial defeat, like the Czar in 1917. This may well require another round of massive American aid later this year or early 2025. A Trump win in the November election may be Putin’s only hope.
