March 06, 2026
Bloomberg.com
US-Israel War with Iran
On Friday February 27 President Trump started a full scale war with Iran, assisted by Israel. This war is restricted for now to airstrikes and missile strikes, as no American troops are being introduced into Iran. This action is illegal under US law, as the power to declare war is vested with the Congress and the President cannot unilaterally take the US into a war. In the past, every single major military action undertaken by a President, whether it was in Korea, Vietnam, the first Gulf War, Afghanistan or the Iraq war, the President at the time always got a Congressional vote to authorize the use of force. In between the US has carried out small scale strikes and actions without Congressional votes, but they were always limited and did not involve open ended commitments that we see in Iran.
Why did Trump attack? Good question, nobody seems to know. He bombed Iran last year for one day to take out its nuclear enrichment facilities, strikes he said were totally effective, so why did Iran need to be bombed again? They were nowhere near producing an actual nuclear weapon. Several different rationales have been trotted out to the public by Trump administration officials. The war was to force Iran to stop its support of proxies in the Middle East such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Or it was to punish the Iranians for various anti-American actions over the last 30 years. Or it is to change the regime to one more pliant to the US. Or it was because Israel had already decided to strike and since an Israeli strike would trigger Iranian attacks on US assets in the region, the US should just go ahead and join Israel now rather than in response to Iranian attacks. Or it is to overthrow the regime and allow the Iranian people to create a secular democratic state and get rid of the hated theocracy they have lived under since 1979. When examined closely none of these explanations really hold water or make sense. Trump has said this war could go on for weeks.
Behind this war lies the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. It is now being reported that Netanyahu decided at that time he would eventually kill the senior Iranian leadership, as they provided the weapons Hamas used, along with all sorts of logistical support. To this end, the US and Israel have been incredibly effective. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and most of the senior figures in the regime were killed the first day in a targeted strike on a gathering of regime heavyweights. This strike showed again how totally compromised by Israeli and US intelligence the Iranian regime actually is. There must be a large number of Iranians in the government acting as spies for the US and Israel, and the Iranians have been unable to dismantle that spy network.
Why are there so many spies in Iran? The best answer is probably money. Very few people still hold intense loyalty to the clerical rule in Iran. The vast majority of the population is completely disaffected and wants to see the end of the current system. There is probably no shortage of Iranians willing to work with the US and Israel. Israel also can lean on a large number of Iranian Jews in their population that speak perfect Farsi and have a deep understanding of Iran and its peoples.
The big lesson the rest of the world is taking from this is that there is still only one superpower. Talk of us now living in a “multipolar” world with China and Russia being peers to the US has been shown to be utter nonsense. While Iran appealed to both countries for assistance, none is being offered. Iran has some of the best air defense systems that Russia produces, but they have turned out to be useless against American and Israeli F-35s with stealth capability. America’s military hardware remains far more advanced and capable then Russia or China. Iran’s air defenses are completely wiped out and US and Israeli jets can fly anywhere they want. Three American fighters were apparently shot down accidentally by Kuwait, but none by Iran.
Iran is struggling to just hang on till Trump tires of this war. Trump is not going to send US troops into Iran, so he must achieve his goals with airpower alone. But airstrikes cannot create regime change. If this war ends with the Mullahs still in power, then that would actually be a defeat for the US in strategic terms. For now Iran is trying to damage its Gulf neighbors, perhaps strike oil infrastructure, and close the straits of Hormuz through which ships 25% of the world oil supplies. The US navy has said it will escort tankers, and Trump has stated that the US will provide insurance for vessels in the Persian Gulf where private insurers have withdrawn coverage due to war. The US does not have unlimited stocks of missiles, and may run out of Patriot batteries used to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones. But Iran does not have endless supplies of its weapons either, and the US and Israeli strikes appear focused on degrading Iran’s abilities in this area.
So far, there have been no signs of the Iranian people rising up against the regime. They tried that just a few weeks ago and were put down with extreme brutality as the regime shot and killed tens of thousands of protestors. Even if the US targets regime police and army units, it is unable to fully dismantle the security apparatus that exists in Iran, centered on the fanatical Revolutionary Guards. There are reports that Trump is considering providing weapons to Iranian Kurds via the Iraqi border, and having a Kurdish militia take on the regime. That is highly unlikely to work, as the Kurds by themselves even with US weapons do not have the capacity to seize Tehran. At most they could prize loose the Kurdish majority areas in northwestern Iran.
Trump has started an illegal war that lacks the support of the American people. It also has no clear rationale or war aim. It is being fought strictly with air strikes, so is unlikely to achieve regime change. Iran will likely remain in the control of the Mullahs, or it could fall apart in chaos. Trump will avoid major US casualties by staying out of Iran with ground troops. But if oil prices spike for extended period, they could further hurt his very low approval ratings. The Trump movement was supposed to be against involving the US in wars and staying out of regime change and nation-building exercises. Trump said the invasion of Iraq was a big mistake (not at the time, but when he ran for President in 2016). Vice President Vance said just before the 2024 election that the US should not get involved in a war with Iran. But this policy of non-intervention has been thrown on the scrap heap.
