Page 21 - Pakistan Link - June 25, 2021

COMMENTARY JUNE 25, 2021 – PAKISTAN LINK – P21
Pakistan’s Coming Boom which accounts for different price levels be-
n By Nayyer Ali MD using PPP rate (Purchasing Power Parity,

akistan is now a few years past its tween nations). At that rate it is about 5,600
70th birthday, and is still a relatively
Ppoor country. But after decades of fit- After a civilian political system
ful growth, the country is on the brink of
a major transformation. The that has been dominated for 50
next twenty years are about years by the Bhutto family, and
to witness it becoming a very
successful nation that will be for the last 30 years also by the
unrecognizable to most Pak- Sharif clan, Pakistan appears to
istanis today.
Pakistanis tend toward have broken the hold of those
excessive pessimism and negativity about criminally corrupt patronage
the country. Certainly it has had its ups and parties on the government. The
downs. The failure to hold East and West
Pakistan together was predictable but still rise of Imran Khan and the PTI
seen as a failure of sorts. More importantly, has been a breath of fresh air.
Pakistan has not achieved the level of de-
velopment seen in the East Asian nations, Khan’s party is the first time
while its political system has oscillated be- Pakistan has had a political
tween venal democracy and military dicta-
torships. Despite all that, Pakistan has per- party that was genuinely
formed moderately well. Economic growth concerned with developing
averaged 5% per year for the last 70 years,
which has resulted in the economy expand- the nation and pursuing
ing 30-fold. Because population has grown the national interest, rather
six-fold, the rise in per capita income has
been five times that of 1950. But if one takes than lining the pockets of its
into account the value of all the new tech- supporters
nology also available since 1950, living stan-
dards have risen tremendously.
Meanwhile, after a civilian political sys- But COVID then upended the landscape, tolerable levels. dollars per person. Even that is a gross un-
tem that has been dominated for 50 years by and Pakistan had to deal with the economic The more important point is that Paki- derestimate as Pakistan has not rebased its
the Bhutto family, and for the last 30 years consequences. Fortunately, the PTI handled stan is now set up for strong growth for the national income accounts (used to calculate
also by the Sharif clan, Pakistan appears to the issue very well, without a nationwide next two decades. Economic policy is be- GDP) since 2006. Actually GDP is likely
have broken the hold of those criminally lockdown, and the economy through June ing handled far more professionally, and the 25% higher, so really about 7,000 dollars.
corrupt patronage parties on the govern- 2020 only declined by less than 1%. full benefit of the infrastructure investments The miracle of steady economic growth
ment. The rise of Imran Khan and the The big question was how well would of CPEC (the Chinese investment project comes from the effects of compounding. To
PTI has been a breath of fresh air. Khan’s Pakistan navigate the ensuing 12 months. in Pakistan) will be reaped. Motorways grow 5% per year for 70 years expands the
party is the first time Pakistan has had a po- While many expected the economy to con- connecting the nation have been built up, economy 30-fold, but Pakistan remains rela-
litical party that was genuinely concerned tinue to perform poorly and perhaps even railroads are being upgraded, and electric tively poor because in 1950 it was little more
with developing the nation and pursuing shrink, it turned out Pakistan grew by at power capacity has surged. Pakistan’s grid than millions of impoverished, illiterate, ru-
the national interest, rather than lining the least 4%. Final numbers are not in yet, but has now grown to 40 gigawatts, and will add ral, subsistence farmers. But the next two
pockets of its supporters. The PTI assumed many observers think there was enough another 20-30 gigawatts in the next 10 years. doublings of the economy will raise incomes
power in 2018, when Pakistan faced a crip- momentum in the last 90 days for growth Several large dams, particularly the 4.5 giga- to 28,000 dollars, the level of a developed
pling balance of payments crisis brought on to reach 5%. Exports have boomed. Car watt megadam at Diamer-Bhasha, are under nation. I expect Pakistan’s growth to pick
by an overvalued Rupee and excessive im- sales and cement sales are up sharply, and construction. Electricity consumption is up up to 6% in fiscal 2022, and average 6-7%
ports. Pakistan had to go to the IMF, deval- large-scale manufacturing has shown strong 20% over last year. for the rest of the decade. Pakistan is now
ue the Rupee, and grant independence to its growth. The only blemish is inflation is still Pakistan’s GDP has reached 47 trillion perhaps 25 years away from being a devel-
central bank, along with other key reforms. running about 10%, but that is driven by the Rupees this year, which is 307 billion dollars oped nation. For those Pakistanis in school
That caused growth to slow sharply in 2019, worldwide surge in food and oil prices, and at market exchange rate, or 1,400 dollars per or university today they will be astonished
with 2020 looking like a year of recovery. will likely moderate in the next year to more person. But it is more accurate to convert by how much Pakistan is about to change.
‘Innocent Mistakes’ Will No Longer Cost Immigrants Their Green Cards or Visas

n By Daniel Shoer Roth there is a possibility the benefit requestor can
overcome a finding of ineligibility for the ben-
mmigration authorities in the United efit sought by submitting additional evidence.
States have rescinded one of the policies ... Emphasizes that officers should not is-
Iimplemented by the Trump administra- sue unnecessary RFEs and NOIDs, such as
tion that had one of the most profound nega- in cases where the officer determines the evi-
tive impacts on legal immigrants with pend- dence already submitted establishes eligibility
ing or upcoming applications. or ineligibility for the benefit sought.
The 2018 policy had granted US Citizen-
ship and Immigration Services (USCIS) adju- Once an immigrant has a green card,
dicators broader authority to issue case denials here’s what they have to do to become a US
over mistakes or missing documents without citizen
giving applicants the opportunity to fix them USCIS said the policy update aims to im-
and provide additional documentation. prove immigration services.
It “resulted in USCIS denying certain The agency also announced that it will
benefit requestors an immigration benefit even increase the current one-year validity period
though they would have demonstrated their of an Employment Authorization Document,
eligibility if given the chance to provide addi- commonly known as a work permit, to two
tional evidence,” the Department of Homeland years for certain adjustment of status appli-
Security agency said in a policy alert issued cants.
earlier this month. USCIS has been pulling back some of the
The rescinded guidance affected almost proceedings the moment their visas expired. benefit,” the agency added. changes made during the Trump administra-
all immigration applications, petitions and re- But during the Trump presidency, USCIS According to the policy alert, the im- tion, ever since President Joe Biden signed the
quests, including US citizenship, permanent made a policy change that granted adjudicators Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Sys-
residence or green cards and visas. full discretion to deny applications without first “We are taking action to eliminate tems executive order.
Even with a green card, an immigrant issuing an RFE or a NOID, when appropriate. policies that fail to promote One of the most significant reversals is
could be denied US citizenship for these rea- Now, USCIS is returning to the adjudica- that the 2019 Public Charge Rule — which
sons tive principles of a 2013 memo that instructed access to the legal immigration blocked path to green cards for low-income
Traditionally, when applicants don’t sub- agency officers to issue an RFE or NOID when system, and will continue to make immigrants — no longer is in effect.
mit enough evidence to support their benefit additional evidence could help immigrants re- improvements that help individuals “We are taking action to eliminate poli-
petitions or make innocent mistakes, USCIS ceive an immigration benefit. cies that fail to promote access to the legal im-
adjudicators have issued courtesy warnings “This updated policy will ensure that navigate the path to citizenship,” migration system, and will continue to make
known as Request for Evidence (RFE) or No- benefit requestors are given an opportunity to said DHS Secretary Alejandro N. improvements that help individuals navigate
tice of Intent to Deny (NOID). correct innocent mistakes and unintentional Mayorkas in a news release the path to citizenship,” said DHS Secretary
These notices gave immigrants and their omissions,” USCIS said in a news release. Alejandro N. Mayorkas in a news release.
attorneys the opportunity to intervene before “In general, a USCIS officer will issue an (Daniel Shoer Roth is a journalist cover-
a decision was made — avoiding case denials. RFE or NOID when the officer determines ad- proved guidance: ing immigration law who does not offer legal
For some visa holders applying for renewal, a ditional information or explanation may po- ... Explains that an officer should generally advice or individual assistance to applicants.
denial could mean being placed in deportation tentially establish eligibility for an immigration issue an RFE or NOID if the officer determines Miami Herald)
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